Musa is developing models and data-driven maps that illustrate how factors such as climate change, seasonal variations and human behavior influence Lyme disease spread in Maryland and beyond.
The University of Maryland Department of Mathematics and Institute for Health Computing (UM-IHC) welcomed Salihu Musa as a research scientist in fall 2024.
Musa earned his Ph.D. in mathematical epidemiology at Hong Kong Polytechnic University, where he explored transmission mechanisms in infectious diseases, including COVID-19 and various vector-borne diseases such as Zika, dengue and Ebola.
Prior to joining the University of Maryland, he was a bioinformatician at the University of Massachusetts Medical School. There, he applied his expertise in epidemiological modeling to analyze large-scale datasets, advancing our understanding of disease spread, forecasting outbreaks, and examining how human behavior influences transmission patterns. Eager to expand his focus to additional disease areas, he chose to bring his talents to Maryland.
“Epidemiological modeling is essential for understanding and managing diseases,” Musa explained. “During the COVID-19 pandemic, it proved invaluable for predicting spread and guiding public health responses—insights that are just as critical for addressing other diseases.”
At Maryland, Musa is focused on advancing our understanding of Lyme disease transmission dynamics, leveraging his expertise to develop mathematical and statistical tools for robust data analysis. Musa’s approach leverages simulation-based inference for epidemiological dynamics and sophisticated geographic information systems to analyze spatial and temporal patterns of Lyme disease transmission. The visually compelling, data-driven maps he creates also illustrate how factors such as climate change, seasonal variations and human behavior influence Lyme disease spread.
“Lyme disease is a significant public health challenge across the country,” Musa said. “Maryland ranks among the top 10 most affected states, per CDC data, and within Maryland, Montgomery County bears the highest burden, making this research especially relevant to our local community.”
Musa’s model-driven study generates real-time maps of Lyme disease cases in high-burden areas, which provide local public health agencies with a realistic estimate of disease burden in their jurisdiction, identify potential hot spots and offer insights into the effectiveness of intervention strategies. Citizens living in or visiting high-burden areas in the mid-Atlantic, Northeast and upper Midwest United States will also find the maps helpful because they will know when to minimize their exposure to ticks, according to Musa.
Working alongside Abba Gumel, who holds the Michael and Eugenia Brin Endowed Chair in Mathematics at UMCP, Musa seeks to improve Lyme disease management and control strategies not only within the United States but also on a global scale, providing tools to better mitigate infections and protect public health while considering the changing climate.
“Dr. Musa's work offers a cutting-edge, data-driven solution to one of the most pressing public health challenges of our time—quantifying and mitigating the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the distribution and burden of human diseases, such as Lyme disease,” Gumel said. “Dr. Musa's hybrid mechanistic-statistical model realistically assesses the population-level effectiveness of various control and mitigation measures against the vector and the disease. His research exemplifies the One Health approach, which holistically integrates human, animal and environmental health to address public health challenges.”
In the coming months and years, Musa and Gumel look forward to continued collaborations within the University of Maryland and in the surrounding BioHealth Capital Region.
“I’m incredibly drawn to this area—it’s an ideal environment for research with impressive resources and high-caliber researchers at the IHC,” Musa said. “Beyond that, we’re perfectly situated near other renowned research universities and key government agencies like the NIH and FDA, making it a prime location for collaboration and innovation.”
Written by Sarah Ellinwood
